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  1. Two elementary models of ocean circulation, the well-known double-gyre stream function model and a single-layer quasi-geostrophic (QG) basin model, are used to generate flow data that sample a range of possible dynamical behavior for particular flow parameters. A reservoir computing (RC) machine learning algorithm then learns these models from the stream function time series. In the case of the QG model, a system of partial differential equations with three physically relevant dimensionless parameters is solved, including Munk- and Stommel-type solutions. The effectiveness of a RC approach to learning these ocean circulation models is evident from its ability to capture the characteristics of these ocean circulation models with limited data including predictive forecasts. Further assessment of the accuracy and usefulness of the RC approach is conducted by evaluating the role of both physical and numerical parameters and by comparison with particle trajectories and with well-established quantitative assessments, including finite-time Lyapunov exponents and proper orthogonal decomposition. The results show the capability of the methods outlined in this article to be applied to key research problems on ocean transport, such as predictive modeling or control. 
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  3. During the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of disease transmission has become a cornerstone of key state decisions. To advance the state-of-the-art host viral modeling to handle future pandemics, many scientists working on related issues assembled to discuss the topics. These discussions exposed the reproducibility crisis that leads to inability to reuse and integrate models. This document summarizes these discussions, presents difficulties, and mentions existing efforts towards future solutions that will allow future model utility and integration. We argue that without addressing these challenges, scientists will have diminished ability to build, disseminate, and implement high-impact multi-scale modeling that is needed to understand the health crises we face. 
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  5. Abstract

    Pests and disease have become an increasingly common issue as globalized trade brings non-native species into unfamiliar systems. Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis), is an Asiatic species of boring beetle currently devastating the native population of ash (Fraxinus) trees in the northern forests of the United States, with 85 million trees having already succumbed across much of the Midwest. We have developed a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation model to predict the spread of emerald ash borer over a heterogeneous 2-D landscape, with the initial ash tree distribution given by data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis. As expected, the model predictions show that emerald ash borer consumes ash which causes the local ash population to decline, while emerald ash borer spreads outward to other areas. Once the local ash population begins to decline emerald ash borer also declines due to the loss of available habitat. Our model’s strength lies with its focus on the county scale and its linkage between emerald ash borer population growth and ash density. This enables one to make accurate predictions regarding emerald ash borer spread which allows one to consider various methods of control as well as to accurately study the economic effects of emerald ash borer spread.

     
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