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The construction of bifurcation diagrams is an essential component of understanding nonlinear dynamical systems. The task can be challenging when one knows the equations of the dynamical system and becomes much more difficult if only the underlying data associated with the system are available. In this work, we present a transformer-based method to directly estimate the bifurcation diagram using only noisy data associated with an arbitrary dynamical system. By splitting a bifurcation diagram into segments at bifurcation points, the transformer is trained to simultaneously predict how many segments are present and to minimize the loss with respect to the predicted position, shape, and asymptotic stability of each predicted segment. The trained model is shown, both quantitatively and qualitatively, to reliably estimate the structure of the bifurcation diagram for arbitrarily generated one- and two-dimensional systems experiencing a codimension-one bifurcation with as few as 30 trajectories. We show that the method is robust to noise in both the state variable and the system parameter.more » « less
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Two elementary models of ocean circulation, the well-known double-gyre stream function model and a single-layer quasi-geostrophic (QG) basin model, are used to generate flow data that sample a range of possible dynamical behavior for particular flow parameters. A reservoir computing (RC) machine learning algorithm then learns these models from the stream function time series. In the case of the QG model, a system of partial differential equations with three physically relevant dimensionless parameters is solved, including Munk- and Stommel-type solutions. The effectiveness of a RC approach to learning these ocean circulation models is evident from its ability to capture the characteristics of these ocean circulation models with limited data including predictive forecasts. Further assessment of the accuracy and usefulness of the RC approach is conducted by evaluating the role of both physical and numerical parameters and by comparison with particle trajectories and with well-established quantitative assessments, including finite-time Lyapunov exponents and proper orthogonal decomposition. The results show the capability of the methods outlined in this article to be applied to key research problems on ocean transport, such as predictive modeling or control.more » « less
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of disease transmission has become a cornerstone of key state decisions. To advance the state-of-the-art host viral modeling to handle future pandemics, many scientists working on related issues assembled to discuss the topics. These discussions exposed the reproducibility crisis that leads to inability to reuse and integrate models. This document summarizes these discussions, presents difficulties, and mentions existing efforts towards future solutions that will allow future model utility and integration. We argue that without addressing these challenges, scientists will have diminished ability to build, disseminate, and implement high-impact multi-scale modeling that is needed to understand the health crises we face.more » « less
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